I am sitting here in St. Pierre (N 46 46.608 W 056 10.490) watching the hurricane track of Earl and the tropical storm Fiona right behind it. The projected track for Earl will bring it over Reboot on the weekend. There is some chance that it will dissipate before reaching here and a high probability that it will at least reduce from a hurricane to a tropical storm or tropical depression before reaching St. Pierre. The highest probability - 40% - is for a tropical storm with wind speeds from 39 mph to 73 mph. Fiona has not developed to the point where the impact here has been calculated.
I am sitting at a dock at the very east end of St. Pierre. There are several breakwaters between Reboot and the Atlantic Ocean. I am on the west side of the dock. My conversations with the other cruisers here have reached the conclusion that the west side will be more protected as the winds come up from the southeast than the east side of the dock. Also, there are several floating docks on the east side, if they were to come loose the big dock I am on would provide a shield.
In the dumb luck category: Since the main ripped it is off the boat. I also plan to take the jib down so that there will be nothing but bare poles. I also expect to reinforce the solar panel array or, if it looks like we are going to be hit hard remove the panels completely. Taking the panels down would be a big pain in the butt but better than losing them.
In the ironic category: My boat insurance requires that I stay out of the "hurricane zone" during hurricane season. The zone is an east-west line from the Florida - Georgia border on the north to an east-west line that parallels the Nicaragua - Costa Rica border on the south. I had no expectation that at this latitude I would be bothered by hurricanes. Live and learn.
I had dinner last night with a cruising couple that are waiting for a weather window to sail back to France (that is, the mainland one in Europe.) We had duck and lots of good wine. It was a great time.
I am off to see how the mainsail repairs are coming. More later
Underway to Beltung. 548 nm. 5 to 6 days or more dependent upon wind. 1 POB + 1 Cat Fair winds and following seas :)
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